Health care bill will not pass House

I’m going to go out on a limb: The House will not pass the health care bill this weekend. Democrats have 258 votes in the House, compared to just 177 for the Republicans. That’s a big discrepancy, but the Republicans are unified, while the Democrats are splintered.

Nancy Pelosi can afford up to 40 defections and still have enough votes to pass the bill. The problem (for her) is that far more Democrats are likely to jump ship. The Hispanic Caucus, which has 27 members, is pushing to allow illegal immigrants to purchase coverage in a public exchange, and conservative blue dog Democrats are opposed to the possibility of funding abortion. Plus, the cost associated with the bill is enough to scare away support. This is especially true for those who represent conservative districts and fear being portrayed as a free spender in the 2010 election.

By the way, did you know there are fines of up to $250,000 and prison sentences of up to 5 years for those who refuse to purchase coverage? The vote will be close, but don’t be surprised when Pelosi loses this battle.