Will Patrick Kennedy Challenge Scott Brown?

It looks like Patrick Kennedy’s decision to leave politics is a sabatical, not a retirement. In a recent interview with the Washington Post, Kennedy discussed the possibility of running for a Senate seat and mentioned plans to keep $500,000 in a campaign account. Here are the two big questions: When will he run, and which seat will he pursue?

Kennedy was quick to praise both Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse, Rhode Island’s two Senators. He is similar to both ideologically, so it’s doubtful he would challenge either one. My guess is that he will move to Massachusetts and challenge Scott Brown in 2012 for his father’s old seat. Patrick Kennedy was born and raised in Massachusetts, moved to Rhode Island to attend Providence College, and ran for office shortly after arriving. I always felt his decision to come here was carefully calculated, since Rhode Island is one of the bluest states in the country, and his father was just a short drive away to offer campaign help. Now that he doesn’t need the boost provided by Rhode Island’s demographics, I expect him to bolt as soon as it is politically expedient to do so.

There are certainly more competent candidates to challenge Scott Brown, but if Kennedy does challenge Brown, it would automatically become one of the most competitive races in the country. The question isn’t if Kennedy will pursue the seat, but when.