The Republican rollercoaster continues

The Republican Presidential candidates after a debate. Who will be the next media darling?

Once the field of Republican Presidential candidates began to settle, Mitt Romney was anointed as the front-runner and favorite. While he has consistently led the field with support of 20% to 25% in most polls, that means there are 75% to 80% who are supporting someone else. There’s a desire to find the anti-Romney, but so far, none has been able to pull away.

This past summer, Michele Bachmann seemed to quickly gain headlines and support. Of course, this ended when Rick Perry entered the fray and instantly rocketed to the top of the field. Since then, Perry has shown that he’s ill-prepared for the national spotlight. After some strong debate performances, Herman Cain vaulted into the top-tier, but he’s seen his support erode a bit since sexual harassment accusations have come to light.

The current darling of the GOP contenders is Newt Gingrich. He’s not my first choice, but there’s no denying that he’s intelligent, has experience, and is a strong debater. The question for Gingrich is whether he can maintain the popularity surge. Unlike Perry or Bachmann, he actually has substance, but as his poll numbers have risen, so have the number of negative stories. The media seems to revel in building up a candidate’s poll numbers so they can knock them off the pedestal they created.

With the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary in less than two months, a small, transient up-tick in popularity could greatly alter the race. I don’t see Romney’s numbers changing appreciably, and it looks like Perry, Bachmann, and Cain have hit their peak. Besides Romney, the only candidate who has garnered steady double digit support is Ron Paul. If Gingrich were to falter, or the media succeeds in tearing him down, I’d look for Paul to have a surge in the early states. With a strong organization, I wouldn’t be surprised if he were successful in capitalizing on the potential surge.